Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.8#286
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#79
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 4.4% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.6% 31.5% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.0% 16.9% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.7 9.7 11.1
.500 or above 78.9% 93.1% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 89.3% 77.5%
Conference Champion 12.3% 20.9% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.8% 5.5% 2.4%
First Round15.2% 28.6% 13.0%
Second Round5.7% 13.8% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 4.4% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.6% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 39 - 10
Quad 49 - 118 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 16   @ Oregon L 60-71 14%    
  Nov 15, 2019 106   UC Irvine W 70-66 65%    
  Nov 20, 2019 67   BYU W 77-76 51%    
  Nov 23, 2019 247   @ Pacific W 70-63 73%    
  Nov 29, 2019 268   UNC Wilmington W 82-68 89%    
  Dec 04, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 77-80 41%    
  Dec 07, 2019 179   Colorado St. W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 11, 2019 100   @ Tulsa L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 14, 2019 332   Alabama St. W 80-60 95%    
  Dec 22, 2019 75   Georgia Tech L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 28, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 01, 2020 275   Wyoming W 77-62 89%    
  Jan 04, 2020 95   @ Nevada L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 08, 2020 146   UNLV W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 11, 2020 77   @ San Diego St. L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 15, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 18, 2020 34   Utah St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 118   @ Fresno St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 29, 2020 330   San Jose St. W 81-62 95%    
  Feb 01, 2020 95   Nevada W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 04, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 74-65 76%    
  Feb 08, 2020 34   @ Utah St. L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 11, 2020 170   Air Force W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 16, 2020 77   San Diego St. W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 19, 2020 330   @ San Jose St. W 78-65 86%    
  Feb 23, 2020 92   New Mexico W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 26, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.5 3.4 1.6 0.4 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 5.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 6.1 4.7 1.2 0.1 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.1 4.0 0.8 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 5.8 3.8 1.6 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.5% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 88.5% 3.4    2.5 0.9 0.0
15-3 59.9% 3.5    2.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 27.9% 2.5    0.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 99.5% 63.6% 35.9% 4.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
17-1 1.6% 87.3% 47.1% 40.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 75.9%
16-2 3.8% 73.3% 38.4% 35.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.0 56.7%
15-3 5.8% 53.4% 30.4% 22.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.7 32.9%
14-4 8.9% 33.9% 20.5% 13.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 16.8%
13-5 11.2% 20.8% 16.6% 4.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.9 5.1%
12-6 12.7% 11.7% 10.5% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 11.3 1.4%
11-7 13.2% 7.5% 7.1% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 12.2 0.5%
10-8 11.5% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.0%
9-9 9.9% 3.2% 3.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.6
8-10 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
7-11 5.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
6-12 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.6% 11.3% 5.4% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.9 4.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 83.4 6.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 57.2 15.8 27.0